Nintendo’s stock price in Japan has seen a sharp decline over the past five months, falling roughly 33 percent from its all-time high despite strong hardware performance and optimistic fiscal guidance. Shares peaked at 14,795 yen in August 2025 and closed today at 9,950 yen, reflecting growing investor unease around pricing strategy, software output, and recent hardware discounting in Western markets.
Investor concerns appear to center on several overlapping factors. Possible future price hikes, a perceived slowdown in major first-party releases, and hardware discounts in the United States and Europe during the recent holiday season have collectively weighed on sentiment. The decline suggests that market confidence has softened, even as Nintendo continues to report historically strong results for its newest console generation.
The Nintendo Switch 2, which launched globally on June 5, 2025, has delivered a record-breaking debut for the company. In its first four months on the market, the system sold 10.36 million units worldwide, making it the fastest-selling console in Nintendo’s history. That milestone was reached five months sooner than the original Switch. While the 2025 holiday period proved somewhat uneven, with Western sales down around 35 percent compared to the original Switch launch window, the console has maintained exceptional momentum in Japan.
Much of that domestic success is attributed to a high software attach rate. Mario Kart World is nearing 10 million copies sold, while Pokémon Legends Z A has already surpassed one million physical units in Japan just months after its October release. Even without a major Western-focused blockbuster during the holidays, Nintendo’s first-party lineup continues to drive engagement and sales, particularly in its home market.
Looking ahead, Nintendo has raised its financial guidance for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The company increased its Switch 2 hardware forecast from 15 million to 19 million units and lifted its software target to 48 million units. Revenue is now projected at 2.25 trillion yen, with operating profit expected to reach 370 billion yen. Still, Nintendo has acknowledged that profit margins are under modest pressure, as the Switch 2 costs more to manufacture than previous hardware.
